NFL Wild-Card 2024: Key Matchups, Key Stats, Best Bets and Predictions

MMQB PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS | PLAYOFF STORY LINES | MMQB WILD-CARD PICKS | NFL BETTING PICKS

Put the power rankings away and stop the MVP debates—the NFL playoffs have arrived.?

The answers to these season-long discussions on which team is the best and who truly is the top quarterback will be provided on the field over the next few weeks. Instead of voting for MVP, perhaps Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson will get to settle it on the field for a potential divisional-round showdown next week.?

But first, Jackson’s Baltimore Ravens have to get by the Pittsburgh Steelers during the second game of Saturday’s doubleheader. Allen’s Buffalo Bills have an intriguing battle against the Denver Broncos for the first game of Sunday’s tripleheader.??

We can’t just assume Jackson and Allen will join Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs in the divisional round. Just like we can’t just assume the Houston Texans are going to be one-and-done after a rough path to the AFC South crown. The underdog Texans could be highly motivated against the visiting Los Angeles Chargers during the first matchup of wild-card weekend.?

Even the seventh-seed Green Bay Packers have a strong chance of upsetting the Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday. Last season, Jordan Love and the Packers became the first No. 7 seed to advance to the next round after knocking off the Dallas Cowboys.??

There could be plenty of points scored in Sunday night’s battle between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Washington Commanders. But the best game of wild-card weekend might not arrive until Monday night when the Los Angeles Rams host the Minnesota Vikings.?

Here’s everything you need to know about the wild-card round, including Gilberto Manzano’s key matchups, Matt Verderame’s key stats, Iain MacMillan’s best bets and Conor Orr’s prediction for each game.??????

SATURDAY

Los Angeles Chargers (11–6) at Houston Texans (10–7)

When/TV: 4:30 p.m. ET, CBS, Paramount+

Spread: Chargers -2.5 (over/under: 42.5)

Matchup to watch: Chargers WR Ladd McConkey vs. Texans CB Derek Stingley Jr. Houston is viewed as a home underdog partly because of its lack of depth at wide receiver. But the same can be said about Justin Herbert’s weapons, with McConkey being the lone reliable pass catcher. Stingley, who was recently named to the Pro Bowl, is certainly capable of taking away McConkey. But that’s easier said than done after McConkey recorded 82 catches for 1,149 yards and seven touchdowns in the regular season. —Manzano

Key stat: In a game expected to be both tight and low scoring, don’t be surprised if penalties come into play. Houston has committed the fifth-most with 119, while the Chargers took the fifth-least with 96. —Verderame

Best bet: Chargers -2.5. It’s best to not overthink this play. The Texans have struggled in the second half of the season and there’s no sign of things improving. Their offense is 25th in the NFL in EPA per play and 31st in success rate since Week 10, and things won’t get easier against a team as well-coached as the Chargers. Unless Houston’s offense wakes up, which I don’t expect, I’ll take Los Angeles to win and cover. —MacMillan

SI’s pick: I like the Chargers. I think that their brand of physicality can wear down a good Houston defense and, offensively, the Texans are going to struggle against a unit that is not full of your traditional all-star players (yet) but one that can absolutely rip a team apart if they’re not careful. —Orr

Pittsburgh Steelers (10–7) at Baltimore Ravens (12–5)

When/TV: 8 p.m. ET, Prime Video

Spread: Ravens -9.5 (over/under: 43.5)

Matchup to watch: Steelers RB Najee Harris vs. Ravens LB Roquan Smith. Pittsburgh won’t stand a chance in Baltimore unless it can provide a balanced attack for Russell Wilson. Harris had a sluggish second half to the season, reaching 75 rushing yards only once in the final six games. If Harris can move the chains, Wilson will see more opportunities downfield to George Pickens. But Smith is an elite run stopper and was instrumental in why Baltimore led the league in allowed rushing yards with only 80.1 yards per game. —Manzano

Key stat: The Ravens are going to run the ball with Derrick Henry and Jackson after gaining a league-best 5.8? yards per carry. However, Pittsburgh’s defense has been excellent against the run, ranking fourth at 4.1 YPC against. —Verderame

Best bet: Ravens -9.5. This is shaping up to be the most lopsided game of the playoffs. The Steelers continue their seemingly yearly tradition of stumbling into the playoffs and then getting blown out in the first round. Pittsburgh finished the regular season ranking 23rd in net yards per play (-0.4), the worst mark amongst all postseason teams. Meanwhile, the Ravens’ defense has improved from the first half of the season and now ranks second in opponent EPA per play since Week 10. Baltimore will dominate this matchup.? —MacMillan

SI’s pick: The Ravens are an obvious choice here even though Pittsburgh had an unbelievable game plan for Baltimore during the first matchup and Mike Tomlin outpointed his counterpart at the end of that game. Since then, Pittsburgh has gone off the rails while Baltimore has continued to find more ways to explore its own set of personnel and exploit the weaknesses of its opponents.? —Orr

SUNDAY

Denver Broncos (10–7) at Buffalo Bills (13–4)

When/TV: 1 p.m. ET, CBS, Paramount+

Spread: Bills -8.5 (over/under: 47.5)

Matchup to watch: Bills RB James Cook vs. Broncos’ defensive front. Allen played superman throughout the 2024 season, but he’s going to need plenty of help from Cook against a talented Broncos defense. If Allen is asked to constantly drop back, that could lead to sacks and interceptions. Cook can throw off the timing of Denver’s pass rushers by running the ball efficiently and being a threat as a receiver. Cook rushed for 1,009 yards and 16 touchdowns, and added 32 receptions for 258 yards and two touchdowns during the season. —Manzano

Key stat: Denver is a huge underdog, and to win will have to dominate on third down. The Broncos are 13th in that category, converting 39.6% of the time. Meanwhile, Buffalo has struggled defensively in this area, allowing 43.8% of attempts to rank 28th. —Verderame

Best bet: Broncos +8.5. Denver’s defense could make this game interesting. It ranks second in opponent yards per play (4.9), first in opponent EPA per play, second in opponent success rate, and third in opponent points per game (18.3). Meanwhile, the Bills rank 21st (5.5), 16th, 20th and 11th (21.6) in those four respective stats. Don’t be surprised if Denver challenges the Bills.? —MacMillan

SI’s pick: Buffalo at home in this kind of weather is such a tough team to pick against. While the Broncos are riding high after a big season-ending victory over the Chiefs (starters or not), this is where the fairytale ends. Allen’s mobility, as it always seems to do in the winter, is going to rear its head and make all the difference. —Orr

Green Bay Packers (11–6) at Philadelphia Eagles (14–3)

When/TV: 4:30 p.m. ET, FOX

Spread: Eagles -4.5 (over/under: 47.5)

Matchup to watch: Packers WR Jayden Reed vs. Eagles’ secondary. Green Bay will need to find creative ways to open up the field after the season-ending injury to Christian Watson, the team’s best vertical threat. That could mean more plays for Reed, who had a strong start to the season before opposing defenses keyed in on his versatility. Reed failed to reach 100 receiving yards in the final eight games. But it won’t be easy for the Packers to get Reed going against an Eagles’ secondary allowing only 174.2 passing yards per game, which was No. 1 in the regular season. —Manzano

Key stat: When the Packers get into the red zone, they’ll have to win some strength-on-strength battles. Green Bay is 10th this year at 59.4% inside the 20-yard line, while Philadelphia’s defense is fifth in the red zone at 50.0%. —Verderame

Best bet: Packers +4.5. If any team wants to beat the Eagles, the key will be stopping the run, with 48.83% of their offensive yards gained on the ground this season. That’s over 4% more than the next closest team. But if any team can slow that rush attack, it’s the Packers, who allow the third-fewest yards per carry at 4.0. They’re also seventh in opponent rush EPA and fifth in opponent rush success rate since Week 10. Green Bay matches up well with this Philadelphia team, therefore I’ll take the points. —MacMillan

SI’s pick: I like the Eagles because of their defensive front, which, when active, can stymie even the best running game in the league. Josh Jacobs is a bully and can break tackles at a high rate, but this Philly front seven is designed to slow him down. If that’s the case, Jordan Love simply throwing the ball 40 times will lead to some major turnover issues. —Orr

Washington Commanders (12–5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10–7)

When/TV: 8 p.m. ET, NBC, Peacock

Spread: Buccaneers -3 (over/under: 50.5)

Matchup to watch: Commanders TE Zach Ertz vs. Buccaneers LB Lavonte David. Tampa Bay’s banged-up secondary will have its hands full with Terry McLaurin, but the defense can’t lose track of Ertz, who emerged as a reliable weapon for Jayden Daniels toward the end of the regular season. Daniels could target Ertz heavily away from the pocket. Ertz had 11 catches for 116 yards and three touchdowns in the past two games, including the game-winner against the Falcons in overtime. —Manzano

Key stat: Protecting Daniels might be the story of this game. Tampa Bay had the third-most quarterback hits this season with 114 and is sixth with 46 sacks. Meanwhile, Washington has a sack rate of 8.7% against, ranking a woeful 25th. —Verderame

Best bet: Buccaneers -3. Despite delivering some electric moments this NFL season, the underlying numbers on the Commanders don’t look promising. They enter the playoffs 13th in net yards per play at +0.3, while ranking 15th in EPA per play and 19th opponent EPA per play since Week 10. Meanwhile, the Buccaneers have quietly become one of the elite teams in the league. They’re now fifth in net yards per play (+0.7), along with fourth in EPA per play and seventh in opponent EPA per play since Week 10. I’ll lay the points with Tampa Bay. —MacMillan

SI’s pick: The Buccaneers are in berserker mode at this point and can get red hot against anyone. I see Washington as a trendy pick though people forget that this Todd Bowles defense can hurl some crippling game plans from time to time. If Bowles gets hot against Daniels, this one could be over quickly. —Orr

MONDAY

Minnesota Vikings (14–3) at Los Angeles Rams (10–7)

When/TV: 8 p.m. ET, ESPN, ABC, ESPN+

Spread: Vikings -1.5 (over/under: 47.5)

Matchup to watch: Vikings LT Cam Robinson vs. Rams OLB Jared Verse. Robinson had a rough Week 18, allowing several pressures that prevented Sam Darnold from operating against the Lions. The Rams surely took notice of that and will likely have an aggressive game plan for their talented pass rushers, including Verse, the leading candidate for Defensive Rookie of the Year. For the most part, Robinson has filled in admirably for the injured Christian Darrisaw, whose season-ending injury led to Minnesota executing a trade with Jacksonville for Robinson. Darrisaw injured his knee early in the Week 8 loss vs. the Rams. —Manzano

Key stat: Sam Darnold will have his chances to exploit the Rams’ secondary. Los Angeles is 26th in allowing 11.6 yards per completion, while Minnesota is tied for fifth offensively in that same metric at 12 yards per completion. —Verderame

Best bet: Under 47.5. Despite making the playoffs, both offenses have been underwhelming this season. The Vikings and Rams rank 12th and 16th in yards per play as well as 13th and 14th in EPA per play. Another issue they've shared is punching the ball in for a touchdown when they get to the red zone. The Vikings are 19th and the Rams are 25th in red zone offense. Meanwhile, the Los Angeles defense ranks fifth in the red zone, allowing teams to score a touchdown on just 50% of red zone trips. All of those factors, paired with my lack of faith in Darnold in a big game led me to bet the under. —MacMillan

SI’s pick: I had to pick one upset this year so I took the Rams over the Vikings. Perhaps after seeing Detroit sell out on the blitz the week prior and what that did to Darnold, the Rams will try the same thing and have success. Minnesota’s defense can be dominant but the Rams have fared well to this point against their former assistant, Kevin O’Connell. Why not again? —Orr

All best bet odds courtesy FanDuel.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call? 1-800-GAMBLER.