SI:AM | One Thing to Watch in Each NFL Wild-Card Game

Good morning, I’m Dan Gartland. I still can’t get over how eventful the final minutes of Notre Dame–Penn State were.

In today’s SI:AM:

?? Notre Dame’s comeback win
? Ohio State’s defensive key
? NFL coaching jobs, ranked

Wild-card weekend x-factors

Are you sick of watching football yet? You better not be. Thursday and Friday’s College Football Playoff semifinals will be followed up by three days of NFL playoff football, beginning Saturday afternoon and concluding Monday night. There are six games on the docket. Let’s take a quick look at each one.

Los Angeles Chargers at Houston Texans (4:30 p.m. ET Saturday on CBS)

Which offense will be able to crack these two stout pass defenses?

The Chargers had the NFL’s best scoring defense in the regular season, allowing just 17.7 points per game. And while the Texans weren’t quite as stingy (ranking 14th in the league with 21.9 points allowed per game), both teams are particularly good against the pass. Houston ranked third in net yards allowed per pass attempt and Los Angeles was fifth in that same metric.

The Chargers’ Justin Herbert figures to have a better chance at cracking Houston’s defense than his Texans counterpart, C.J. Stroud. Herbert led the league this season in interception rate and posted a career-high passer rating. Stroud, meanwhile, took a step backward this season after a stellar Rookie of the Year campaign in 2023. Part of that regression can surely be attributed to losing star receivers Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell to season-ending injuries, so Texans fans shouldn’t be too concerned about Stroud’s future as a quality quarterback. In the present, though, Houston could have trouble moving the ball against a Chargers defense that has stymied opponents all year long.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (8 p.m. ET Saturday on Prime Video)

Can the Steelers keep this one close or will it be a blowout?

Pittsburgh is a 10-point underdog against division champion Baltimore, just as it was in last season’s wild-card game against the Buffalo Bills. (The Steelers lost that one, 31–17.) That large spread isn’t just a statement about the Ravens’ strength. It also has a lot to do with the Steelers’ recent struggles.

Pittsburgh held a two-game lead in the division headed into Week 15 with a record of 10–3, while Baltimore was 8–5. But the Steelers lost four straight to close the season, while the Ravens won their last four. The Steelers didn’t score more than 17 points in any of those games and averaged just 258.8 total yards.

A turnaround might be especially unlikely against the Ravens, considering how heavily the Steelers rely on running the ball and how stout Baltimore’s run defense has been. Pittsburgh ranked fourth in the NFL this season in rushing attempts and was one of only five teams that ran the ball more than they passed. The Ravens, meanwhile, allowed the fewest yards per rushing attempt of any team in the league.

Denver Broncos at Buffalo Bills (1 p.m. ET Sunday on CBS)

How will Bo Nix fare in his playoff debut?

The Broncos were widely mocked for selecting Nix with the 12th pick in last year’s draft. He was the sixth quarterback selected and had been projected to go late in the first round at the very earliest. A second-round selection seemed more likely for a 24-year-old without elite arm strength.

But Nix exceeded all expectations as a rookie and has led Denver to its first playoff appearance since 2015. Don’t expect a repeat of that 2015 postseason, though, when Peyton Manning led the Broncos to their third Super Bowl victory. The Bills might be the best team in the NFL, and should have no trouble playing at home against a Broncos team lacking in playoff experience. But Denver didn’t enter this season with title aspirations. This season was about seeing whether Nix is the right guy to hitch its wagon to. So far, it seems like he is, and the experience of playing a road playoff game against a Super Bowl contender will prove valuable down the line.

Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles (4:30 p.m. ET Sunday on Fox)

Will Saquon Barkley steal the show?

Barkley has been a revelation in his first season in Philadelphia, leading the league with 2,005 rushing yards. He also shouldered a heavier load than running backs these days are accustomed to, carrying the ball 345 times. Only two other players in the past 10 years have had that many carries in a season: Derrick Henry (who has done it twice) and DeMarco Murray in 2014. But Barkley sat out the Eagles’ regular season finale, rather than chase Eric Dickerson’s single-season rushing record, so he should be fresh as he plays his third postseason game of his career.

Barkley has been appointment viewing this season, not just piling up yardage and touchdowns but doing so while breaking incredible runs and making viral highlight plays. All eyes will be on him as the Eagles open the playoffs against a good Packers team.

Between Barkley and quarterback Jalen Hurts, the Eagles relied more heavily on the running game than any other team in the NFL this season, leading the league with 621 rushing attempts (36.5 per game). That’s the style of football that you want to be playing in January, as temperatures in Philadelphia are expected to drop into the 20s.

Washington Commanders at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8 p.m. ET Sunday on NBC/Peacock)

Will this one be a shootout?

Both teams have prolific offenses and middling defenses, so we could see plenty of points put up by the end of the night. Washington ranked fifth in scoring offense this season, while Tampa Bay was fourth. On the defensive side, Washington ranked 18th in points allowed and Tampa Bay was 16th.?

These teams already met once this season, a Week 1 win by the Bucs, 37–20. But don’t put too much stock in that result. That was Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels’s first NFL start, and he has made tremendous progress since then. Daniels is a Rookie of the Year contender, thanks to his combined running and passing ability. The Washington offense is driven by the run game, ranking third this season in rushing yards and fourth in yards per attempt. Daniels was the team’s rushing leader with 891 yards this season. The Bucs’ offense is more pass-heavy, with Baker Mayfield putting up the third-most passing yards of any quarterback this season.

Minnesota Vikings at Los Angeles Rams (8 p.m. ET Monday on ESPN/ABC)

How will the Rams be affected by the fires in Southern California?

The NFL made the decision Thursday to move this game from Los Angeles to Arizona, due to the ongoing wildfires in Southern California. One of those fires, the Kenneth Fire, began Thursday not far from where the Rams practice in the Woodland Hills neighborhood of Los Angeles.

It’s an unimaginable situation for the Rams, who must prepare for a playoff game while their city burns. The players and coaches will have far more important things on their minds ahead of Monday’s game, on top of the added disruption of having to alter their preparation to play on the road. The Rams were already underdogs against a superior Vikings team, and this sort of instability won’t help.

The best of Sports Illustrated

• Pat Forde was at the Orange Bowl, where Marcus Freeman and Notre Dame dug deep at halftime to beat Penn State and advance to the national championship game.

• Ahead of Friday’s Cotton Bowl, Bryan Fischer explains why safety Caleb Downs’s versatility is critical to Ohio State’s defense.

• Oklahoma’s Jeremiah Fears rocketed up Kevin Sweeney’s NBA draft big board after a strong start to SEC play.

• Conor Orr ranked every NFL head-coach opening and predicted who each team will hire.

• Our series examining the Hall of Fame cases of players on the ballot this year continues with Tom Verducci on Ichiro Suzuki, explaining why his greatest strength outweighs any weaknesses in his candidacy.

• Bob Harig has an update on how the PGA Tour is approaching next month’s event in Los Angeles amid the wildfire crisis.

The top five…

… things I saw last night:

5. Auston Matthews’s game-tying goal in the second period while falling to the ice. (The Hurricanes went on to beat Matthews’s Maple Leafs, 6–3, though.)
4. Jalen Duren’s big block on Draymond Green.
3. Jaden Greathouse’s 54-yard touchdown for Notre Dame to tie the game late in the fourth quarter.
2. Yet another poster dunk by Anthony Edwards.
1. Lamar Washington’s game-winning three for Pacific to seal an overtime upset against Washington State. Washington finished with 40 points.